Where are the signals about signals?

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Apr 282011
 

One of my staff just got back from O’Reilly’s Where2.0 in Santa Clara. I wish I had gone, but . . . (So much to do, so little time.)

The interesting things that he brought back would fill the back of a half-ton truck easily. Exciting things like Facebook’s new coupon service that’s going to (probably) hammer Groupon. But in and among the tidbits of information a few ideas and words kept coming back like the leitmotif of the industry.

“Context” — seems we’ve moved passed the contextual web and into the contextual mobile web.  Who would have ever thought that the geographic context would be relevant in a Web/mobile world? (Hint:  I come to my mind.)

“Intent” — this one is hardly specific to the mobile/geo-location world, but its prominence is insightful.  Essentially we’re talking about understanding the the current inforamtion and/or data by means of not only the context, but the actor’s (perceived) intention.  In this case we’re probably talking about actual direction and . . .

“Velocity” — we’re interested in the speed, pace, and differentials of what’s happening. Buzz indexes had some prototypical stuff about velocity implicit in their models, and information cascades develop in no small part because of the velocity of information movement. Here it’s likely the actual physical movement velocity, but it applies to information, etc. equally well.

“Signals” — finally there is recognition that most of the information that is being generated is nothing but the ever-growing noise in the background. Real information is only in a few signals that have to be decoded. It’s about time.

These, particularly the last, caught my attention, because of the book I’m releasing next month which started its life with the working title, “Signals and Noise.” It’s now called The Spaces In Between, and much of this type of thinking forms the foundation for it.

Very interesting.

Preparing for FEI

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Apr 262011
 

I may have mentioned that I will be on for a session at the 2011 Front End of Innovation conference next month. So, in addition to polishing final draft of the book I’m bound and determined to get out VERY soon, I’m preparing for the presentation part of the session.

This is hard. (Maybe I’m putting too much pressure on myself.)

Attendees at the conference come from all areas of business and elsewhere, run the range from academic to practitioner, engineer to designer, entrepreneur to executive to the people who actually do the work of innovating. The opportunity is a bit intimidating. On the one hand, only at a conference like that could you have 10, 20, or 100 focused and smart people in the same room working on the same thing–to learn something. On the other, I and everyone else will be speaking to 10, 20, or 100 people who probably have as much or more experience and knowledge about the area of innovation as I do.

At best, everyone should come out learning one thing. That’s what I’m shooting for. At the very best, they should come out learning one thing and inspired to look at the world just a little differently (for a while).  The the ultimate best, they should learn one thing, see the world differently, and say, “That was entertaining. It could have gone on for another hour…”

No doubt others have had this problem:  how, in such a short time (15-20 minutes) can you impart knowledge of value AND be entertaining, without being Malcolm Gladwell. If anybody has the secret and is willing to share, please send me a note.

 Posted by on 26 Apr 2011

Wealth causes disease?

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Apr 212011
 

I would never make make fun of cancer and cancer patients. That said, this article in today’s Globe & Mail quoting a study that links wealth to higher incidents of breast cancer is begging for it.

Read the article if you choose. The study essentially makes a two step correlation: less wealthy women produce more children earlier in life; child production affects estrogen exposure because missing menstrual cycles will do that; exposure to higher levels of estrogen appears to correlate with higher incidence (15%) of breast cancer. Fair enough.

The headline that skips the important parts attracts attention. It just begs to be made fun of though. And that’s unfortunate.

On the other hand, this kind of headline/body copy dissonance is not unlike what goes on in other theatres of life like the work of sales or business development, in innovation, and so forth. Could be a fascinating correlation in itself.

 Posted by on 21 Apr 2011

Russell Williams – you see what you want to see

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Nov 022010
 

Thank God.  It took less than a week for the media circus to leave town.  The homocidal pervert is in jail for a long time and the sober reflection can begin.  It’s hardly my place to analyse and assess.  The situation is far to complicated for someone with my general lack of professional training and experience (although that didn’t stop any of the reporters, columnists, and essayists that weighed in between his capture in Tweed and his final sentencing in Ottawa).

Having said that, I would like to contribute only this to everyone’s receding thoughts and considerations about the situation.  Williams, like so many others good and bad, traded on this feature of human nature.  We see what we want to see.  Or put slightly diffferently, you see what you expect to see.   It’s not something I made up or discovered; it’s a psychological truism.  In the case of Williams, those around him fulfilled their own deep or passing expectations of the good soldier and all that means.  Lantern jawed, of steely gaze and upright comportment, Williams was the model of a modern major general in a manner of speaking.  So what did colleagues, friends, neighbours, and others see?  Exactly what they expected.

This phenomenon applies not only to hideous human stains but to the things we all do every day.  In the case of Williams, it took detectives putting the pieces together to suspend belief in what they expected to see into the spaces between and around the perception and the reality.  For me and you, it means questioning our own eyes (and ears, and nose, etc.) at times.  Who hasn’t felt like a fool once or twice, having searched for a good long time for some missing thing only to discover it in the most obvious and repeatedly reviewed place?

To the extent that any given person is aware of this phenomenon, we don’t apply it to our own efforts particularly well.  If we did, not only would we find our eyeglasses faster, we would also manage to uncover critical information that is not obvious to the common observer.  We could put that relatively simple capability toward uncovering novelty, insight, and inspiration in the spaces in between the information and data that’s commonly evident to all.

More about this as this blog evolves.

Discipline

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Oct 192010
 

This is really hard. I’d forgotten the discipline involved with regularly writing to a blog (it’s been about 4 years since recursiveprogress first went off the air).
In the ensuing time, although I’ve developed a lot of thoughts and ideas that can be brought to bear on a variety of subjects and current events, the will to apply commentary to things on a regular basis has dissipated. The problem is that I want to share my ideas and to have them critiqued with responses back. I want to test some of the thinking that’s going into new books and essays.
But it’s really hard. Mostly because I’m also trying to keep this iteration of the blog focused rather than allowing it to meander around whatever caught my fancy on a daily basis.
More than that, at least the last time around I knew that there was one or two people out there somewhere reading what I put out. Starting again from ground zero, it feels a little bit like saying a speech into a mirror. You get the practice and one day when you deliver the speech it may be better, but it’s still only practice.

 Posted by on 19 Oct 2010

Giving thanks

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Oct 122010
 

Thanksgiving weekend at my house is a full weekend affair. The proximity of two October and November birthdays means that the annual pumpkin pie extravaganza gets a Saturday and Sunday warm-up of dinners and elaborate cake. Most other days of the year, I try to lay off the carbs.
In addition to the standards of yesterday’s feast, I’m also thankful that it was all pleasant, that it’s over, and that I can fit into my clothes today (if even only by the slimmest of margins).

 Posted by on 12 Oct 2010

“Internet Trends” — speed and movement

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Oct 082010
 

To prove just how plugged in I am, last night I was reviewing a Morgan Stanley report that was presented at the CM Summit–New York City in EARLY JUNE.  (How much could have changed, really?)

In any case, the report is a typically astounding accumulation of data about the macro-economic, stock market, manufacturing, purchasing, and other drivers of the Internet economy.  This, of course, is Mary Meeker’s wheelhouse.  Truly, the charts have a depth and intensity about them that demands the analyst’s talk track.  Insights abound.

As for me, without the benefit of Mary’s talk track direction, my own observations don’t necessarily run toward practical business strategy aha’s.  Well, that’s not entirely true.  There are those.  The one’s that stand out to me are not.  Here’s what I mean:

  • A compelling line chart shows how the diffusion of mobile Internet has massively outpaced in speed and overall size all prior forms of (desktop) Internet.  That’s the funny thing about records:  they tend to get broken.  Twenty and thirty years ago, Ben Johnson and then Donovan Bailey set new records in the men’s 100 metre.  There was, just like the in the diffusion charts, successive incremental development over the years.  Only last year did Usain Bolt crush the existing pattern.  It’s impressive how fast and large mobile Internet is.  But it begs the question:  could it have been like this without the prior, expanding developments of the desktop Internet.  Like Isaac Newton, “If I have seen farther, it is only because I was standing on the shoulders of others . . .”
  • iPad among the fastest consumer computing devices ever. No doubt that at 28 days to reach 1MM units sold it blew past everything else but the game toys (Wii and DS).  It’s velocity was about 1/3 of the iPhone’s and 1/12 or so of the original iPod.  Again, what if there hadn’t been an iPhone or iPod to create the conditions for the iPad speed?  What if Apple hadn’t created their amazing retail structure?  What if the Blackberry (~300 days many moons ago) hadn’t tilled the ground for smartphone devices?  The iPad’s uptake velocity is amazing but the conditions are different.  What’s the learning?
  • The iPad tablet is more like a desktop than like a smartphone as far as Internet page views go.  D’uh!  Having the data there is great but it should hardly be a surprise.  The iPad looks and feels like a more effective and efficient laptop PC.  It’s genetic relationship to the smartphone (iPhone) would be the same as our genetic relationship to a Rhesus monkey:  similar but an entirely different scale and class.
  • I really like the the user device usage evolution over the past 30 years (“From Input . . . to Output . . . to Sharing”) slide.  I have no doubt that an anthropologist would have a field day with the subtext, which I read as back to the future.  Text to touch and keyboard to fingers go regress the medium back to pre-industrial and pre-Gutenberg times.  Oral history through recorded history back to oral history would be a parallel in my academic field.  Manual to mechanical to manual as far as ergonomics and industrialization go.  The best row is the one that shows the device usage going from “Creation” through “Communication” to “Consumption + Sharing”.  First, it lines up nicely to the Western socio-economic norm of the consumer society–a theme that somebody wanting a grad thesis should jump all over.  Second, it begs the questions, “Consuming and sharing what?  Who’s creating the stuff to be consumed and shared?”  After all, unless it’s permanent recycling, somebody’s got to be making the stuff–even if it’s just words.  By the by, wasn’t it just recently that the leitmotif of the Web was “everybody’s a creator now?”

There’s more.  The report, if you can find it, is well worth the read.  But that’s all I’ve got for now.

The meme of Memes

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Sep 282010
 

Now I’m sitting in a “conversation” about Understanding Internet Memes.  At this point, having had everyone in the room introduce themselves and describe why they’re interested in the session (BTW, almost everyone is a journalist.), we were given a definition by the Rocketboom session moderators.  The definition acknowledges Richard Dawkins’ creation of the idea/word and its parallel with the “gene” inasmuch as the meme spreads like a gene.  The focus of the definition is essentially on a lengthy list of popular Internet fads that are essentially viral ideas that break and then find explosive popularity through derivatives and mutations.

That’s the definition we’ll be working with.  So be it.  But as part of some work I’ve been doing to research a forthcoming book, I’ve dipped deeper into the concept.  And now I discover that apparently I’ve submerged well below the level of the experts presenting.  Not that where I’ve gone is more significant or valuable, but it does include the parallel to the gene that Dawkins also included.  That is, the meme has history and an ancestry, like a gene.  So, while it’s fascinating to discuss what makes a popular viral video popular and worthy of spreading (while others don’t), there is a more significant exploration that should or could be undertaken in wondering where this strain of meme came from.

Basically, there are no new genes.  Sticking with the human species and its set of 24 double-helix chromosomes, there are essentially a large but fixed number of dominant and recessive genes that are combined in offspring that define what that little person will become physically.  So it is with memes.

Let’s stick with stories.  There are essentially about 9 archetypal stories such as the hero’s quest, the “fish out of water,” comedy, tragedy, etc.  ALL stories that you encounter today are derivatives of these archetypes.  One story meme that has been around forever is the flood story.  It goes back to Ancient Sumeria and appears in its most well-known form as the story in Genesis about Noah.  The meme finds its way into current movies, novels, and so forth. So the idea “gene” has worked its way through the generations from Sumer to The Book of Eli and The Day After Tomorrow.

We’re not having that discussion.  What we are having is essentially an information virology lesson.  At the very end of the session, Dawkins’ original parallels to the gene was dismissed in favour of a more practical approach to understanding the spread of ideas, etc.  That is immenently practical for marketers and others who are trying to be successful and make money with this buzzword.  All that said, it’s just a little superficial.

 Posted by on 28 Sep 2010

Social anthropology

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Sep 282010
 

About four years ago I was at another conference, Future Trends, when I first encountered the people and ideas around social anthropology.  This is essentially the study of the culture going on around you.  There’s an obvious value for branding, marketing, innovation, etc.  And it makes complete sense.  But what the scientific sounding name really implies is the study of social behaviour, which is psychology and is a well tilled patch.

Here, at Web2.0, in New York, I am listening to a few journalists describe how to get buzz for your product.  The first speaker introduced herself as essentially a cultural anthropologist as a way to describe her angle and take on technology, reducing it to social behaviour.  As best as I can understand it, this seems to be the thrust of her guidance–at least as it relates to her:  technology products and services that align to the zeitgeist are inherently interesting.  Good insight.  The third speaker (a WSJ writer) just advised everyone that journalists like to tell stories.  Ergo, if your technology, service, product, has a good story it will be more appealing.

This meme of social behavioural psychology seems to be one of the threads of differentiation between today and “yesterday” (by which I’m referring to the dot-com period).  It warrants more engaged discussion, which I will post as time goes on.  It is likely, I think, to be the thrust of recursiveprogress/the sequel.

 Posted by on 28 Sep 2010
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